The Kremlin will likely use the Zapad 2021 exercise to further integrate Russian and Belarusian military units at deep levels. Abstract . Baltic Fleet exercises have continued through January 28 as of this writing.[2]. By Institute for the Study of War. [1] The “People’s Tribunal” is the opposition’s call to protest against the impunity of Belarusian security forces who used violence against citizens; https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1340555149010472961, [2] https://t (dot) me/tsikhanouskaya/421, [3] https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1340620144347910146; https://apnews.com/article/alexander-lukashenko-belarus-elections-minsk-europe-f7701b01de37c4c4c3700c796bc27d75, [4] http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/belarus-warning-update-putin-will-increase-pressure-lukashenko-integrate-belarus-2021, [5] https://tass (dot) com/world/1237637; https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1340620144347910146; https://www (dot) belta (dot) by/incident/view/guvd-v-minske-za-uchastie-v-nesanktsionirovannyh-meroprijatijah-zaderzhany-okolo-100-chelovek-421028-2020/; https://www.rferl.org/a/belarus-demonstrators-detained-rally-lukashenka-resignation/31010031.html, [6] https://spring96 (dot) org/be/news/101015;  https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-bilorus-protest-zatrymannya/31010178.html; https://twitter.com/tutby/status/1340625292604391430?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1340625292604391430%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.radiosvoboda.org%2Fa%2Fnews-bilorus-protest-zatrymannya%2F31010178.html, [7] https://twitter.com/VoicesBelarus/status/1340575425139978240; https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1340596714907037696, [9] https://twitter.com/Tsihanouskaya/status/1340733333542678529, [10] https://twitter.com/Tsihanouskaya/status/1340733333542678529, [12] https://meduza (dot) io/news/2020/12/21/mvd-belarusi-po-trebovaniyu-lukashenko-sostavilo-bazu-s-dannymi-protestuyuschih;https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1340931491396726785, [13] https://www dot interfax dot ru/world/742157; https://www dot belta dot by/incident/view/mvd-soobschilo-o-zaderzhanii-administratora-destruktivnogo-telegram-kanala-421013-2020/ ; https://www (dot) belta (dot) by/incident/view/mvd-soobschilo-o-zaderzhanii-administratora-destruktivnogo-telegram-kanala-421013-2020/, [14] https://people (dot) onliner (dot) by/2020/12/21/sozdanie-ekstremistskogo-formirovaniya-genprokuratura-vozbudila-ugolovnye-dela-protiv-latushko-tixanovskoj-i-drugix-opponentov-vlasti, [15] https://people (dot) onliner (dot) by/2020/12/21/sozdanie-ekstremistskogo-formirovaniya-genprokuratura-vozbudila-ugolovnye-dela-protiv-latushko-tixanovskoj-i-drugix-opponentov-vlasti, [16] https://twitter.com/Tsihanouskaya/status/1341031523663884293, Russian President Vladimir Putin has used the ongoing crisis in Belarus to increase his sway over self-declared Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who has long stonewalled Moscow’s persistent efforts to integrate Belarus into Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin has a longstanding … Begin New Search. The authors closely examine the various … Sie studieren, wie sie unendlich lange Krieg führen können. [3] The Kremlin likely seeks to deploy new and control existing anti-access/area denial weapon systems in Belarus to contest NATO and Eastern European airspace more than it already does with systems deployed in Kaliningrad. [4], The Kremlin likely plans to create a pro-Russian, anti-Lukashenko Belarusian political party. Jennifer describes Russia's attempt to exploit the current diplomatic process in Syria to enhance its own credibility and influence in the region and beyond. Key Takeaway: Salafi-jihadist organizations in Syria are growing more ambitious. Russia’s Western Military District (WMD) will likely conduct Zapad 2021 in western Russia and Belarus in September 2021. [26] This network will receive targeting information on air and ground objects and coordinate WMD military responses in real-time. Putin will likely succeed in further integrating Belarus’ and Russia’s economies in 2021. The Kremlin may field S-400 systems in Belarus before September 2021. Russia has limited bandwidth and resources to commit to Syria, which Assad knows and exploits. Russia and Belarus began negotiating natural gas contracts for 2021 in November 2020. [1] Tikhanouskaya called for the protest to be the opposition’s largest turnout when she announced it on November 13. It is also possible that the exercises are unconnected, though that is unlikely given the exercises’ strong correlations and consistency with previously observed patterns of activity. Institute for the Study of War | 14,617 followers on LinkedIn. [10] A large joint Russian-Belarusian exercise in January 2021 would thus be consistent with the pattern of frequent joint Russian-Belarusian exercises that ISW has observed since August 2020. In this episode of Overwatch, Maseh Zarif talks with his ISW colleagues Nataliya Bugayova and Darina Regio about what Russia is up to … The Kremlin will likely seek to avoid an overt military intervention into Belarus but will do so if Putin deems it necessary. Stream E43: Kremlin Exploits Crisis to Secure Greater Russian Control of Belarus by Institute for the Study of War (ISW) from desktop or your mobile device. Russian newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda (KP) appointed Russian journalist Marina Bunakova editor-in-chief of its Belarusian branch on August 31. Russia Putin is a modern KGB/FSB elitist who has subdued the oligarchs and think tank elite. [6] The MoD explicitly said the experience gained from this January 14 training will be used in joint exercises with Russian units during Zapad 2021. Institute for the Study of War Today at 2:25 PM Belarus Warning Update: Moscow and Minsk Hold Simultaneous Combat Re ... adiness Exercises in Kaliningrad, Mainland Russia, and Belarus Russian Western Military District (WMD) and Belarusian forces began simultaneous, large combat-readiness exercises in Kaliningrad, Belarus, and mainland western Russia on January 25, 2021. Russia and Turkey are supporting belligerents on opposite sides of three conflicts – in Syria, in Libya, and in Nagorno-Karabakh – and are competing for influence in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. SoundCloud E2: Russia's Campaign in Africa by Institute for the Study of War (ISW) published on 2019-09-26T23:43:58Z. [29], The Kremlin will likely continue using energy pressure to coerce Belarus into making integration concessions. [12] Security personnel wearing unmarked uniforms appeared in Minsk for the first time on September 5, 2020. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a United States–based think tank founded in 2007 by Kimberly Kagan. Unmarked Rosgvardia trucks reportedly were spotted in Smolensk heading toward the Belarusian Border on August 16, 2020. Russia-backed forces have pursued their standard approach, pushing for a negotiated solution while other factions in the pro-regime bloc prepare to use force. Institute for the Study of War: Kimberly Ellen Kagan (born 1972) is an American military historian. [6] This exercise includes C2, signals, electronic warfare, reconnaissance, and chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear defense (CBRN) activity. [3] Bunakova previously worked in KP’s main office in Moscow. Top U.S. officials and the Zionist List unique and discrete but must understood! May choose to continue fielding Russian units in Belarus in 2021 expires in 2025 5,.! Launch of a reporting system to let protesters submit evidence of the people ” on December 7 Command General! 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